New Report Warns Canada May Fall Short of Cervical Cancer Elimination Goal

Canada’s cervical cancer rates have plateaued and may not reach the 2040 elimination target, warns the Canadian Cancer Society.

A newly released Canadian Cancer Statistics report has raised red flags: after decades of decline, cervical cancer incidence rates in Canada are no longer falling and may jeopardize the country’s goal of eliminating the disease by 2040. 

Stalled Progress After Years of Decline

According to the report, cervical cancer rates dropped steadily from 1984 to 2005, but since then the decline has nearly halted. Between 2005 and 2021, the annual decrease slowed to just 0.3%, and in some years, rates even rose. 

Alarmingly, between 2015 and 2019, cervical cancer rates increased by 3.7% per year, making it one of the fastest-growing cancers among women during that period. 

New Cases and Mortality Forecast

The 2025 report projects approximately 1,650 new cervical cancer cases in Canada this year, up from 1,320 in 2005. In addition, about 430 Canadians could die from cervical cancer in 2025, underscoring the importance of early detection and preventive measures. 

Why the Trend Is Concerning

Dr. Jennifer Gillis, Director of Surveillance at the Canadian Cancer Society, warns that the plateau in progress is a “clear signal” that more needs to be done. Several underlying factors are contributing to the slowdown, including:

• Lower-than-desired HPV vaccination rates
• Gaps in regular cervical screening and follow-up care 
• Uneven adoption of more sensitive HPV testing methods across provinces
  

Calls to Action

The Canadian Cancer Society is urging provincial and territorial governments to:

1. Make HPV testing the primary method for cervical screening
   
2. Offer self-administered HPV tests to reach under-screened populations
   
3. Adopt a “once eligible, always eligible” approach to HPV vaccination so those who missed school-based programs can still access the vaccine
   
4. Track and improve screening and vaccination coverage especially in underserved and marginalized communities
   

The Bigger Picture

Experts acknowledge that eliminating cervical cancer is still within reach, but the current data suggests Canada is losing momentum. The disease is almost entirely preventable through vaccination and regular screening  but only if follow-up and access barriers are addressed.

As Canada works toward its 2040 target, stakeholders emphasize that coordinated, sustained action is more critical than ever.

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