Canada’s population may soon grow only through immigration, reshaping demographics, housing, and the labour market, experts warn
Immigration Set to Lead Canada’s Population Growth
OTTAWA — Canada is approaching a historic milestone: population growth may soon come entirely from immigration. Experts say natural growth—births minus deaths—is dwindling, leaving newcomers as the country’s primary driver of demographic change.
The federal government’s latest Immigration Levels Plan and projections from the parliamentary budget officer suggest that 2026 could mark Canada’s second consecutive year of near-zero natural population growth.
“Canada is entering uncharted territory,” said Dan Hiebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia who studies migration. “By around 2029 or 2030, all population growth will be immigration-based. That’s never happened before.”
Immigration Surging as Births Plateau
Canada saw rapid growth after the COVID-19 pandemic, largely fueled by immigration. In 2023, population growth hit 3.1 per cent, well above the historic average of 1.1 per cent since 1972.
Statistics Canada reports that 816,000 temporary and permanent immigrants arrived in 2024, compared with just 34,000 natural population increases. This trend shows how immigration is increasingly critical to Canada’s growth.
A 2024 government report predicts that by 2032, newcomers could account for 100 per cent of population growth, cementing immigration as the country’s central demographic force.
Housing and Economic Effects
The government aims to slightly reduce immigration, particularly among temporary residents such as students, to ease pressures on housing and infrastructure.
Rachel Battaglia, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada, said slower population growth could soften rents but create new challenges. “Reduced demand can ease housing costs, especially in the GTA, but it may also slow incentives to build more units. Affordability is still a long way from pre-pandemic levels,” she explained.
Rentals.ca reports that national average rents fell in February for the 16th month in a row, though the pace of decline is slowing. Meanwhile, slower immigration inflows could also impact the labour market by reducing the influx of younger workers, who had previously helped lower Canada’s median age.
Demographic Shifts and the Labour Market
Immigration has historically rejuvenated Canada’s workforce. After the pandemic, younger newcomers slightly reduced the median age from 41 in 2022 to 40.3 in 2024. But last year, the median age climbed back to 40.6 as temporary resident numbers fell.
“This shift means we can’t rely on new workers to meet labour market demands as heavily as before,” said Battaglia. “We’ll need to focus more on increasing participation rates among existing Canadians and boosting productivity.”
Hiebert highlighted the growing old age dependency ratio—the number of retirees relative to working-age adults—as a critical concern. Currently, there are about 29.5 people aged 65 and older for every 100 working-age Canadians. With long-term immigration trends, this could rise to 50 retirees per 100 workers in 50 years.
“The economy and government services face real pressure when retirees draw more on social services while contributing less in taxes,” he said.
Planning for an Immigration-Driven Future
Hiebert warns that relying entirely on immigration for population growth requires long-term planning. “We’re racing into the future without knowing the finish line. Government policy needs a vision beyond the current three-year Immigration Levels Plan,” he said.
As Canada enters this unprecedented demographic era, the balance between immigration, housing, and economic stability will shape the country for decades to come.
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