Surrey Set to Overtake Vancouver by 2038

Surrey’s booming growth could make it B.C.’s largest city by 2038, hitting one million residents by 2051, outpacing Vancouver’s population.

Surrey’s Population Boom: A Historic Shift Ahead

For decades, people have speculated about when Surrey might outgrow Vancouver. Early forecasts suggested it could happen in the 2010s or even the late 2020s. Now, fresh projections from the Metro Vancouver Regional District place the milestone in 2038. That’s when Surrey is expected to officially surpass Vancouver in population, becoming British Columbia’s most populous city.

But the growth story doesn’t stop there. By 2051, Surrey’s population is projected to reach one million residents, making it the first city in B.C. to cross into seven figures.

The Numbers Behind the Growth

Under the medium-growth scenario — considered the most realistic — Surrey’s population will climb steadily:

• 2024: 701,000
• 2031: 771,000
• 2041: 897,000
• 2051: 1.005 million

In comparison, Vancouver’s population will grow more slowly:

• 2024: 758,000
• 2031: 805,000
• 2041: 878,000
• 2051: 953,000

This means Surrey won’t just catch up — it will pull ahead.

Why Surrey Has Room to Grow

Size matters when it comes to urban growth. Surrey covers 316 square kilometres, making it the largest municipality in Metro Vancouver by land area. Most of that land is available for urban development.

By contrast, Vancouver is only 115 square kilometres, while Langley Township — nearly as large as Surrey — has strict land-use limits, with 81% locked into rural or agricultural use. That leaves Surrey uniquely positioned to absorb new residents.

Comparing the Regions

If Vancouver joined forces with Burnaby, New Westminster, UBC, and the University Endowment Lands, the combined area would still fall short of Surrey’s footprint — 246 sq. km. versus Surrey’s 316 sq. km.

Even with that advantage, Surrey won’t be the only growth hub. By 2051:

• The Burrard Peninsula (Vancouver, Burnaby, New West, UBC, UEL) will grow from 1.18 million to 1.55 million people.
• The South of Fraser East (Surrey, both Langleys, White Rock, Barnston Island) will expand from 924,000 to 1.32 million.
• The North Shore will see modest growth, reaching 286,000 by 2051.
• UBC and UEL will see exponential increases, with UEL alone growing nearly sevenfold.

Challenges Ahead for Surrey

With rapid growth comes major challenges. Surrey officials have repeatedly called for more support from provincial and federal governments. They argue that transportation networks, schools, and hospitals must keep pace with demand. Today, Surrey still leans heavily on portable classrooms — a symbol of its strained infrastructure.

If investments don’t match population growth, Surrey risks being a city that outpaces its resources.

The Bottom Line

The clock is ticking. Surrey is on track to overtake Vancouver by 2038, setting the stage for a new era in B.C.’s urban story. Whether the city thrives under this growth depends on how quickly infrastructure and services can catch up.

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